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WHAT GOES up must come down. So works the law of gravity and so, up until recently, has worked the law of cattle cycles.
Six distinct up-and-down patterns occurred in the number of cattle and calves on farms during the first 91 years the Statistical Reporting Service (SRS)ofthe U.S. Department of Agriculture tracked the inventory.
But since 1958 cattle numbers have been going in basically one direction—up. (The brief pause in the climb during 1967 was in no way comparable to the sharp downturns of earlier cycles.) So after 15 years of increases—which is twice as long as any other cyclical upturn this century—the big question is when are cattle and calf numbers going to turn down again.
Based on SRS’ July 1 midyear cattle inventory (which showed 130.7 million head on farms) and recent slaughter reports, the number of cattle and calves on farms is continuing to increase.
USDA economists have already cautioned that the growth in the inventory this year may just be significant enough to start the increases in year-to-year cattle slaughter that would
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