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QiMiimmiiiiiniiMMiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiiiMiM The following is quoted from “Farm Flashed for Bankers” concerning Agricultural Industry in 1953 which was prepared by our friend Murray Via of the First National Exchange Bank of Roanoke:
Agriculture in 1953 faces a year of uncertainty. Developments in the world political situation, conflicting inflationary and deflationary trends and governmental action, weather conditions, the future developments of the war in Korea, all of which are unpredictable, will have a profound effect upon the future economy of the agricultural industry. In order to anticipate the probable food and fibre needs during the coming year, we must take these matters into consideration.
Except for the serious drought in isolated areas of the United States during the past year, weather conditions have been very favorable for a number of years. A serious drought in 1953 could mean a shortage of both food and fibre.
At present, employment and consumer income are very high and are expected to rise for several months to come. The production and sale of goods are also on the rise, but some economists are already predicting a mild business slump in late 1953, after the peak of military spending has been reached. A number of our economists predict a drop in factory expansion, * home building, consumer and export for autos and home appliances by the latter part of 1953, unless an all-out -war or an expanded defense effort keeps the upward spiral of activity going for a longer period. . *
Undoubtedly, governmental action in the fields of foreign aid, price and wage control, taxation, fiscal policy, agricultural adjustment, labor management relations and related issues will have its effect on the agricultural industry in 1953, and for some years to aome.
Although we have many grave uncertainties, it seems reasonably clear that there will be a strong domestic demand for farm products in 1953. However, the export picture looks less promising since foreign demand for U. S. products is declining and will be off approximately 20 per cent for the full 1952-53 year as compared to 1951-52. During the current marketing year, there are prospects for large declines in foreign demand for wheat, cotton, fruit, grain and a number of other commodities.
Generally speaking, we shall need | full production of most agricultural products, with the exception of possibly wheat, beef, fats and oils and possibly some fruits and vegetables.
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