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New Business Boom 9. The lone business boom fol lowing World War II was begin ning to run out of steam when the Korean War gave it a new lease on life. However, the stimu lus of defense spending is already fading. Barring further inter national troubles, defense activitv in 1953 will be a floor under, and not a new stimulus to. business activity. 10 Capital expansion will move into a readjustment phase some time in 1953. This has been ai> outstanding economic force be hind our long period of good times. Nevertheless. I do not now anticipate any sharp break in business. If a slide starts it should be grateful not steep. 11. Big credit expansion bos been a powerful “shot in the arm" for business during the pa^t two years. I predict that in 1953 loan repayments will become more important than new credit advances. This could handicap over-all business unless adver tising expenditures are increased. 12. Under an Eisenhower Ad ministration I do not look for ex pansion of our money supplies as a result of increased deficit fin ancing. Thus, another stimulat ing force will be absent next year despite the better confidence fol lowing the Eisenhower landslide. Conservatism In Government 13. Although General F.isen howere ran far ahead of his tick et. there has been a considerable gain in the conservative comple tion of Congress. The margin in favor of conservatism is not measured by the slight excess of Republicans over Democrats. It results from the fact that several Democrats can be counted in the conservative* column. The em phasis will be on purifying Bur eaus and Commissions. 14. All government departments will be at the service of the Re publicans after January 20. Never before in the history of the United States has a conservative government had such a powerful bueaucracy at its finger tips. In 1953 we shall see the use of Lhcs" bureaus to aid rather than handi cap business. Hang Onto Your Job 15. Unemployment wiH be no problem for the workers of the nation during the early months of 1953. The demand for and the supply cf labor promise to hold in good balance. Later, however, unemployment will increase, reaching its highest point toward the end or the year. 16. While employment runs high during the first part of the year, strikes will continue to
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