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“OVER 30” is going to become a more common response to questions on age in Virginia, according to a researcher at the University of Virginia’s Tayloe Murphy Institute.
titute. By the year 2000, more than half of the state’s projected population (53 to 55 per cent) is expected to be over 30 years old, compared with about 45 per cent in 1970, says Dr. William J. Serow, director of the institute’s Population Studies Center.
Dr. Serow says the older population and a continued decline in the rate of population growth will have considerable social and economic impact in areas such as the labor force, income per capita, level of consumer spending, housing and education.
Virginia can count on a lower rate of population growth because growth through natural increase— die excess of births over deaths— will diminish within the next 70 years if the present fertility rate continues, Dr. Serow says.
“Migration to the state from the balance of the nation (as well as abroad) will become the predominant factor in the state’s population growth,” Dr. Serow says in the current issue of the University of Virginia News Letter, published monthly by the Institute of Government at Charlottesville.
ANALYZING the state population between 1970 and 2000, Dr. Serow reached the same conculsions by using figures based on two different assumptions in population trends.
His first assumption holds that the birth and death rates of 1970
92.1%