One circumstance which they contemplate is a convention draft.

One circumstance which they contemplate is a convention draft.

The Democrats, of course, are by no means unanimous in their hope that such a draft movement could be engineered. If Robb were to enter the Sentate contest, the move would be laden with implications for the next year’s races for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

There are presently three apparent candidates for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 1985. They are Lt. Gov. Dick Davis, Attorney General Gerald Baliles and Del. Richard Bagley of Hampton.

If Robb were to defeat Warner and resign the governorship, Davis would become governor and, under the State Constitution, would be eligible to run for re-election. He would be the first governor in modem Virginia history to be in such an enviable position.

This would force Baliles and Bagley into the highly disadvantageous position of either trying to take the gubernatorial nomination from a sitting member of their own party or of seeking other avenues for their political ambitions.

Bagley would likely run for lieutenant governor, which he is expected to do anyway if either Davis or Baliles ultimately wins the top spot on the ticket. Baliles, however, would be forced to choose between seeking a second term as attorney general or of stepping out of public life for four years and perhaps trying for governor in 1989. It is not considered likely he would be interested in running for lieutenant governor.

If he should choose the second term option, it would probably derail, however temporarily, the budding aspirations of Del. Mary Sue Terry of Stuart, who is being mentioned with increasing frequency as a promising candidate for attorney general.

All this, of course, raises the interesting, if hardnosed, question of just how hard the Bagley, Baliles and Terry loyalists would be inclined to work for Robb’s election to the Senate, considering the consequences of his early departure from the governorship.

The Davis loyalists, on the other hand, could reasonably be expected to work very hard indeed for it.

Still, in terms of conventional political logic, powerful arguments can be made for the Robb Senate candidacy.

It is generally conceded that the Governor has “national political ambitions.” That, of course, is a euphemism for designs on the presidency of the United States. A Senate seat would be a bulk launching pad for such an undertaking, and his nexn opportunity to acquire one will not come until 1988jvhen Sen. Paul Trible will be up for re-election.

A Robb resignation would install a Democrat in the governor’s mansion who, running as an incumbent, would be in the strongest possible position to turn back a determined GOP challenge in 1985. THe challenger, incidentally, could well be former Gov. John Dalton.

And finally, whatever the merits of other announced and unannounced candidates, Robb would be far and away the strongest opponent who could be fielded against Warner.

This is critically important to the National Democratic Party. With 46 Democrats and 54 Republicans now in the Senate, and with 14 Democratic and 19 Republican seats up for election, a recapture of the Senate by the Democrats is seen as a viable possibility. Without question, the national party will be working to recruit the top candidates in every state where these seats will be up for grabs.

Thus Robb will be getting pressure to run from both within and outside the Commonwealth.

Given these pressures, it will probably take an undiluted “Sherman Statement” to head off the draft winds which will be blowing through Norfolk next May.