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der marriage.
We’ll bet the referenda pass everywhere, even in liberal states, and by large margins in most places. This helps George W. Bush. For one thing, it stimulates gigantic turnouts by conservative Christians, who overwhelmingly favor Bush’s reelection and whose absence from the polls in large numbers may have cost Bush the popular vote in 2000. (Gays will also have record voter turnouts, but the numbers aren’t there in most states to match the increased conservative participation. )
Second, this hot-button social issue has the potential to equal the emotion being generated by Iraq. Just as Kerry benefits from the anti-Iraq fervor, so too will Bush profit from the gay marriage issue.
Of course, it’s true that Kerry also is opposed to gay marriage, but most voters know that gay and lesbian groups are fundamental constituencies of the Democratic party, that Keriy is from Massachusetts where the current gay marriage controversy began, and that Kerry’s 19-year Senate voting record is strongly pro-gay rights.
Gay marriage is but the symbolic cover issue that wraps around the gay rights issue cluster. Rightly or wrongly, most voters think that the march towards gay equality is progressing too rapidly and comprehensively, pushed by unelected judges and unbridled judicial power.
For a majority of voters, certainly, gay rights is not the alpha and omega of politics in 2004. As Cheryl Jacques, executive director of the Human Rights Campaign, commented in the New York Times on Aug. 14, “[MJost people don’t wake up in the morning thinking about gay and lesbian marriage or any gay issue. They wake up in the morning thinking about jobs and health care and the war in Iraq.”
Still, for a sizable segment of the voting population, gay rights and gay marriage rank highly on the list of salient issues. Gay marriage in particular is proving to be a prime motivator of the anti-Kerry, pro-Bush vote. This surprises most of the press and campaign corps, concentrated as they are in the liberal enclaves of Washington and New York. But it is a fact, and an inqreasingly vital aspect of this election year.
The Crystal Ball’s assessment: unintentionally, McGreeveys scandal has helped to raise the prominence of gay rights on the campaign 2004 agenda across the nation.
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