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WILLIAMSBURG — State residents have the income to be spending at a higher rate, and sales will pick up in the fourth quarter, said Roy L. Pearson, director of the Bureau of Business Research in the latest Virginia Business Report from the College of William and Mary.
Even so, retailers should not expect the double-digit surge in spending that came last year. “This year's fourth-quarter increase is more likely to be about seven percent, with much more of the sales in November this year. No late surge could, or will, match last December’s record,” Mr. Pearson predicts.
Those expectations are based on data for the first half of 1989, which shows residents of the Commonwealth have higher incomes than last year, but their buying has been more moderate. Virginia income was up 9.9 percent, or more than $10 billion. But the total retail sales for the period rose only five percent, an annualized increase of $1.8 billion.
“After a fourth-quarter surge last year of 10.8 percent, capped by $5 billion in December sales, Virginia consumers have been more conservative overall so far this year,” Mr. Pearson said.
Looking at the types of goods being purchased, the director added, personal items like clothing, books and jewelry have been part of a selling surge. Travel and restaurant spending also rose, but not at a spec
75.7%