Global

Global

climate

forecast

and ns

By Gerald Ochs

Rappahannock News Writer

It’s no joke. At the rates of temperature change forecast for the coming centuries, Rappahannock County could find itself with the climate of southern Florida.

Scientists expect that average global surface temperatures will rise 1 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the next fifty years, 2.2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the next century and, unless greenhouse gas levels are reduced, the rate of temperature increase will continue to accelerate to the point at which our climate will become unrecognizable.

That 10 degree increase will give us the present day climate of places like Augusta, Georgia, Los Angeles, California, or Columbia, South Carolina and, with the increases likely by 2150, we could have balmy Miami nights here in downtown Sperryville.

The increasing global temperatures will also cause increases in evaporation, which in turn will lead to reduced soil moisture levels and increased precipitation. Unfortunately, precipitation increases may not prove beneficial because it is likely that precipitation will occur in fewer higher energy storms, leading to more runoff, greater likelihood of flooding, and poorer opportunities for long-term soil moisture level improvements.

While it is true that scientists do not fully understand what the geographic distribution of such changes will be, few dispute the fact that these changes are not only coming, but they have begun.

The bottom line for Rappahannock County—and all other agricultural regions on Earth—is that climatic change is in the wind and must be accommodated.

It might not be all bad, especially if local water resources hold, because U. S. agriculture does have the wherewithal to adapt.

We have the technology and capital to change—unlike the developing countries—and the agricultural base in this country is efficient enough to sustain our own

See CLIMATE, Page A8