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Business Administration.
Damage assessment reports compiled by VDACS estimate that the total value of crops lost by farmers in the drought-stricken areas will exceed $311 million, or 43 percent of the total value.
The task force concludes that “it appears that the end of the 1986 drought is not yet in sight ... It is almost a certainty that the drought conditions will linger through the end of the year.”
Hurricane-type storms, which the task force had previously suggested as the only mechanism likely to relieve the drought, become less likely as the hurricane season nears its end.
The National Weather Service long-range prediction for rainfall in November is below normal, with the 90-day forecast (November through January) predicting slightly below normal precipitation. The Office of the State Climatologist at the University of Virginia reports a similar prediction. “Therefore,” the report concludes, “the consensus forecast is now for the rest of the year to average slightly below normal in total precipitation.”
The task force does not venture a prediction for rainfall in the coming year. It does, however, note that “with the Palmer Index at -3.67 at the end of October with streamflows and reservoirs at low levels makes the next four or five month recharge period a critical period to watch . . . Individuals ... governments and water suppliers should continue to carefully monitor their water supply situations and have contingency plans ready for implementation should the need arise.”
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