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Piedmont (-4.30) and Western Piedmont (-5.35) all scored in the “extreme drought" range. The Northern, Central Mountain and Southwestern Mountain regions all scored between minus three and four, indicating “severe drought”.
The state composite index on the Palmer scale was -4.17, which is in the “extreme” range.
The report pessimistically adds that “no significant change in the Palmer Drought Index can be expected until the late fall when recharge rains or some tropical storms come to the state.”
The State Climatologist predicted that “scattered thunderstorms will remain our primary source of moisture for the near term.” There is some hope, per haps, in three observations from the climatologist:
• “the most likely time for the Palmer Index to change sign is in late fall . . . one would expect precipitation to change . . . sometime before that. ”
• The extended outlook from the National Weather Service is for “about normal" precipitation in the period July through September. The accuracy of that prediction is in the 55 to 60 percent range.
• A rainfall model used by the University of Virginia and based
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