and rural character of the County? Under present zoning,

and rural character of the County?

Under present zoning, there are about 5,600 parcels of land consisting of 136,000 acres, on which a house may be located. We estimate that at about 2,100 of these lots are large enough and situated such that it would be practical for someone to build a house on them. Based on current subdivision rights, Rappahannock landowners could create an additional 2,100.

Nearly half of all buildable lots that do not currently have houses are owned by people whose tax bill is mailed outside the County, which suggests they probably don’t live here. Almost 40 percent of the potential new lots from subdivision would come from parcels that are owned by nonresidents. This suggests that we may expect the existing trend in second home construction to continue for some time, assuming that many of the people who own land here but don’t currently live here are

Planning to build a second ome here rather than move here or sell to someone who will.

If we continue to build houses at a rate of about 50 per year (and generally maintain the existing ones), there would be a house on every existing lot in about 42 years and one on every potential lot in about 84 years. At 2.3 persons per house, the population of the county would then be about 12,000 in 2042 and 17,000 in 2084. I hope to be here in 42 years (84 is out of the question), and I sure hope there is not a house on every existing lot by then.

Is this trend likely to continue for 42 years? Probably not, because before 2042, local attitudes are likely to change and we are likely to face an entirely different set of rules and trends. Ok, but should we care that many second homes are being built here at present?

I’m not sure, but our planning process should recognize and monitor these trends and consider their impact on Rappahannock’s scenic and rural character. In the short