Block · one region of the page, as the scanner read it. It may hold a whole story, part of one, several, or an advertisement; stitching blocks into articles is the next step. Text is supplied OCR.
Page 13 · column 5 of 6 · from the scan, no model involved
Another observor questioned whether the data is even available for the IMPAL and DRAM models. “Do jurisdictions even know what the land use will be in 2010 or what the holding capacity will be based on future plans for server and water?” he asked, adding that even the more sophisticated urban jurisdictions “haven’t gone past the year 2000.”
Mr. Bellomo replied that his experience proved IMPAL and DRAM to be accurate forecasting models. “If there’s a better way, we’d like to hear it,” he added.
Fauquier’s planning director Richard McNear asked if agricultural lands will be considered “available for development” for the purposes of forecasting.
The local jurisidctions will be asked for the holding capacity - “maximum population and maximum jobs” - of its agriculturally-zoned lands and “we’re going to go with that,” Mr. Bellomo replied. “The existing zoning is going in as a constraint . . . What you’ve zoned the land to be.”
In Virginia, “to put a constraint on holding capacity based on land use policy is a bit naive,” Mr. McNear countered. He also described the use of sewer capacity for a constraint as “unrealistic” when “developers can put it in where they want to.”
In addition, Mr. McNear was critical of forecasting just to the year 2010. “You’re only looking at the impact in that year? The year (according to the current time frame) the bypass will be built? . . . We’re feeling the impacts from the beltway built more than 20 years ago!”
“We’re having a hard enough time getting (planned) land use for the year 2010,” Mr. Pederson responded, maintaining it would be vitually impossible to forecast beyond that point. He noted that the Task Force recognizes “perhaps a deficiency” in its forecasts on the proposed bypass’ impact. But the methodology gives “at least an indication of the types of pressure you can expect from this facility,” he concluded.
The next meeting of the Washington Bypass Study Interagency Task Force is set for mid-September, with the Maryland State Highway Administration as host. Preliminary alternative alignments for the western and eastern corridors will be discussed.
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