Are the Numbers Right?

Are the Numbers Right?

Employment in Rappahannock County has improved over the last year, but we doubt if the figures are as good as the Virginia Employment Commission claims.

The VEC supplies the official figures on unemployment, as determined by government statisticians in Richmond. For May 1993 (the latest month that figures are available), unemployment in Rappahannock County was pegged at 5.3 percent, a slight increase from 5.1 percent the month before. This is well below the peak unemployment of 12 percent reached in June 1992, says the VEC.

Most people will agree that the job situation today is somewhat better than it was a year ago. But because of the way the VEC keeps their statistics, we don’t think the situation is quite as rosy as they claim.

The unemployment rate, which is calculated by the Richmond VEC office, is an estimate or approximation. The VEC estimates how many people are employed, and how many people are unemployed. These two figures are added together to get the total labor force, and simple math yields the unemployment rate.

The estimated figures are revised up or down each month to take into account seasonal changes, such as summer employment, graduating students entering the job market, and other factors. The figures may be revised, or “benchmarked,” several months later.

“These are not literal head counts,” said Robert HaleCooper, job service manager in the Culpeper VEC office, “but you will get an accurate picture.”

How accurate? According to the VEC, in June 1992, when unemployment hit 12 percent, the labor force in Rappahannock County numbered 4,013. There 3,531 employed folks and 482 unemployed. Eleven months later in May 1993, unemployment was 5.3 percent. But the labor force, says the VEC, had dropped to 3,390. Of that number 3,212 people were employed and only 178 were unemployed.