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to 43 percent in midSeptember; but in the three days after the debate, Kerry jumped to a 47 percent to 45 percent advantage. In other numerical words, Bush lost four points and Kerry gained the same—not a massive shift, but also no small change for this year of extreme polarization.
The poll’s internals were eye.-opening. Men and women now narrowly favor Kerry, and the Democrat’s favorability ratings jumped sharply, to 52 percent positive and 40 percent negative. Bush’s numbers dropped to 49 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable, and his job approval rating was potentially deadly—46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove. Unless President Bush’s job approval ratings soar solidly above 50 percent by Election Day, he will not win a second term; that much, history teaches without question.
Concerning the first debate, the viewing public clearly felt Kerry won, by a margin of over 3-to-l. Yes, the media echo chamber effect massively exaggerated Kerry’s victory, expanding a 15 percent victory margin into a 40 percent margin. After all, when voters hear TV commentators say that Kerry won a hundred times, they defer to the supposedly superior wisdom of electronic experts. And indisputably, the media were anxious to make this contest more competitive for the final month. By 62 percent to 26 percent, viewers thought Kerry
95.1%