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has to derive from an existing strain or strains. That can happen in two ways; either two flu strains can exchange gene segments, or one strain can mutate on its own. To pose as a pandemic threat, the new subtype must cause severe illness in people and be capable of sustained person-to-person transmission.
“The whole idea behind influenza is that it changes,” said Hatter. “Flus change; the bird flu in Asia might change, but we don’t know how yet.”
As the strain stands now, only people in close contact with birds are at a risk of catching the virus.
“We’re watching it very closely for mutations,” Hatter stressed.
A pandemic usually originates in a single focus area and spreads to other parts of world via travel routes. Typically, there are high rates of illness and increased mortality rates in all age groups. Onset can occur in any season of the year, and secondary and tertiary waves may occur over the next one to two years, usually in the winter.
In the past 100 years, there have been three influenza pandemics worldwide, the first and most severe of which was the 1918 Spanish Flu. Forty years later, the 1957 Asian Flu strain evolved, and in 1968 the Hong Kong Flu originated (some strains of which still circulate today). Historically, pandemics occur every 30 or 40 years.
“The bird flu is not definitely going to be the next pandemic,” Hatter said. “But we’re going to have one eventually. It is important that we do specific strategic things to prepare.”
Email the reporter: sanspach@timespapers. com.
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