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WILLIAMSBURG — Worsening economic prospects for the nation will have an impact across the Commonwealth, slowing the state’s growth rates even more than previously predicted, according to the latest Virginia Business Report from the College of William and Mary.
“Actions and events since July have shifted the near-term economic outlook, both nationally and in Virginia, towards less real output and job growth with higher inflation,” said Roy L. Pearson, director of the Bureau of Business Research and editor of the monthly report.
Political uncertainties in the Mideast along with oil-induced inflation could slow real demand growth across the nation by about 1.0 to 1.5 percent from what it otherwise might have been, said Mr. Pearson. Since previous national forecasts predicted less than 2 percent growth in 1990 and only slightly more than 2 percent growth in 1991, “the U.S. will be treading a very fine line during the next 12 months between near-zero real growth and a recession.”
How likely is a recession? Mr. Pearson predicted that slower
91.9%