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growth and slim margins for reallocations from one output or employment market to another “makes a recession very possible during the next five quarters, probably about a 50 percent chance.”
Mr. Pearson added that “whether or not the nation actually experiences a recession, we will have ‘stagflation’ — a stagnant economy (real terms) with rising inflation.” The bureau’s statistics for July reveal that Virginia is also moving towards ‘stagflation,’ with lower demand for construction and durable goods, and decelerating growth in retail sales, payroll jobs and production.
Recent shifts in the economic environment coupled with federal revisions of Virginia’s 1988 and 1989 income statistics caused the bureau to alter its earlier predictions for 1990 and 1991 by substantial margins.
“We now expect total real income in Virginia will rise only 1.6 percent in 1990, instead of the 3.2 percent anticipated in May,” said Mr. Pearson. “Payroll job growth this year will slip to 1.9 percent, instead of the ? 5 percent previously projected.
93.4%