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Early week’s rain notwithstanding, this year will likely be remembered as the year of the worst drought in recent, if not in recorded history. The National Weather Service’s latest statement on the drought is likely to bring further concern to those in Rappahannock who are most dependent upon precipitation and most vulnerable when it is lacking.
The drought has already had significant impact upon local farmers, horticulturists, cattlemen, gardeners, and residents, especially those relying upon shallow hand-dug wells. Many wells are dry, many more will be dry if the trend continues. Hay crop yields are down a reported 30 percent and more, and subsequent summer cuttings look to be improbable.
What’s happened
to the rain?
Just what is going on, and when
A Look for stories about the impact of the drought on area farmers in next week’s Rappahannock News.
can we expect relief? The climatological projections are not reassuring. The origins of this drought can be traced to weather problems as far back as last July that were aggravated by this year’s precipitation deficits. Abnormal dryness began during the last week of April and continued well into June, with May rainfall measuring just one to two inches in the region.
Rainfall during the 6-week period, from April 24 through June 9, totaled only about 1 to 2 inches When 4 to 6 inches would be considered the norm. Additionally, most of the region received no rainfall from the last week of May through the first 10 days of-June.- ^temperatures into the mid to upper 90s in early June further aggravated conditions.
From the longer-term perspective, abnormal dryness began in July of 1998 and continued through the end of the year. Precipitation deficits in the region grew to about 13 inches during the last six months of 1998, when only about seven inches of precipitation fell, compared to normal amounts of approximately 20 inches. Heavy precipitation this past winter, especially in January and March, has resulted in year-to-date totals near normal, but total precipitation since last July remains under two-thirds of normal, with the current precipitation deficit currently about 14 inches.
When will we return to
normal?
Some forecasters see a return to near normal precipitation during the remainder of the summer but, even if we get some relief, the long-term deficits will not be reversed unless the region experiences a tropical storm or hurricane.
The National Weather Service seasonal hurricane outlook is for
91.2%