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“could have easily been generated by an environment in which no stock market crash occurred,” he added.
“December economic indicators likewise give little evidence of postcrash trauma,” Mr. Pearson said, although there were wide swings in some areas. Bank debits posted a 169 percent increase statewide, thanks to a huge jump in Richmond. He said those large dollar amounts are not attributable to consumer billpaying or the purchase of large items, so the increase cannot be viewed as an upturn in consumption.
In contrast, building permits fell by 32.8 percent in December, with nine of 17 urban areas turning in decreases of 30 percent or more. Building permits are also highly erratic, so the decrease is not a surprise, Mr. Pearson said. “The general trend for the year has been a decline, as we predicted in 1986 and regularly during 1987 before the crash.” In a brief acknowledgement of the crash’s possible effects, however, Mr. Pearson said “some of the December slide may have been due to companies cancelling plans or putting them on hold due to the crash — we have no way of knowing for sure.”
In sum, the November and December data confirm Virginia’s trend toward slower growth in general and decreased new construction and car purchases in particular which were predicted for 1987,
90.8%