Experts

Experts

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first few years and increasing benefits in the fourth and fifth years,” Holsworth said.

“The largest benefit will come in the fifth year after Gilmore, if elected, is out of office. So the bill would be extended to another governor,” he said.

Beyer’s proposal would provide more tax relief to recipients in the first year but less relief over the course of time, Holsworth said.

The cost

Beyer’s campaign says his plan would cost about $202 million a year in state revenues, or about $808 million during his term. » Gilmore’s campaign estimates the cost of his phased-in program at about $1 billion during his term and $620 million annually thereafter. . But state associations representing the cities, counties and towns in Virginia say the annual cost of fully implementing Gilmore’s plan could be twice that expensive. i Betty Long, the director of fiscal policy for the Virginia Municipal League, said that between 1986 and 1996, ^Statewide personal property J&x revenues grew each year “by an average of 9 percent. If that level of growth continues as expected with the increasing number and value of vehicles, the annual cost of fully implementing Gilmore’s tax relief would be more than $1.3 billion, she said.

“The sum of the program in the first five years is almost ' $2.9 billion. These are funds that will not be available to address other state priorities,” Long said. “Putting this much of their personal property revenue at risk is unacceptable to local governments.”

James D. Campbell, executive director of the Virginia Association of Counties, agreed. “The personal property tax is the second biggest source of revenue for localities. It accounts for 16 percent of local revenues generated by county governments across the state.”

In September, the two ^associations teamed up to produce a brochure entitled “What You Should Know About the Personal Property ►'Tax.”