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me woolly worms are extra fluffy, and the squirrels are gathering a lot of nuts. It’s going to be a rough winter, right?
Not necessarily, according to Dr. Stanley L. Ulanski, an associate professor of geology at James Madison University and a meteorologist. “There’s really no bearing on the biological functions of organisms on forecasting.” More than likely, it’s just been a plentiful year for nuts, he said.
Scientific studies have shown that old folk tales such as these have no real validity in forecasting. People tend to remember the times when such sayings held true, but forget the many more times they didn’t.
As for the Farmer’s Almanac, it’s been proven no more accurate than other methods of predicting the weather, according to Dr. Ulanski. In early years its forecasts were based on observance of animals and vegetation, but now it uses sunspot cycles, usually periods of 11 years, to predict weather activity on the earth.
The almanac has a lot of creditability with people because of a lucky accident, Ulanski said. Years ago a printing error was made, and a heavy snow was predicted for July rather than January. It just so happened that a heavy snow did fall in July of that year.
Long-range forecasting is actually a series of educated guesses. Forecasts can be made with reasonable accuracy for a period of three days, but accuracy decreases dramatically after longer periods, said Dr. Ulanski.
Long-range forecasts are based on patterns of upper and lower level air flows and comparisons of previous weather patterns. Meteorologists, who are trained in such interpretation, analyze patterns and make their predictions. However, long-term interpretations vary greatly.
What is known with certainty is that the changing of the seasons is based on two different air flows: the maritime tropical air (warm and humid) from the southeast in the summer, and* cottilfientsrpdlar 'air*(cold
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