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and dry) in the winter.
In the Shenandoah Valley predictions are tough because of the influence of topography, the JMU scientist said. Fronts usually move from the west to east, but once they hit the Alleghany Mountains, systems tend to become “distorted.”
If air moves over the mountains, it cools and increases in condensation, which can result in intense precipitation. Conversely, if air systems are slowed by the mountains, they can dissipate on the leeward side.
The Valley weather has broken a number of records in the past year with a flood, drought, extreme temperature highs and lows for various months. With weather, Dr. Ulanski explained, the abnormal is normal “We’re more likely to encounter extremes. In time they average out.”
For example, the rainfall which resulted in the November 1985 flood was not totally put of the ordinary, he said. It was a normal weather system that persisted in the area.
And now, back to the original question. What kind of winter can we expect? Dr. Ulanski can only guess. He offers one clue for wouldbe meteorologists: The heaviest snowfalls do not result from systems in the west, but develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move up the Carolina coast. Keep, track of those satellite photos on television.
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