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to be more severe than the past winter, but not as severe as the one before that. But keep in mind that winters following an El Nino are often more severe than normal.
For our forecast period, we select the 143-day period from Nov. 12, 1995 to April 2, 1996. In that time frame, we predict 101 cold days (temperature no higher than 40 degrees F or 4.5 degrees C), 60 wet days (days with precipitation) and 24 cyclonic storms (low pressure systems crossing our forecast area). We predict 45 inches or 115 cm of snow.
We expect December to be more severe than it has been for several years. We believe that February will try to make up for all of last winter’s deficit of snow and lack of cold temperatures.
We mentioned above that there have been six El Nino events in our 27 years here at your Almanack. They used to say there would be one about every nine years. Are they coming more frequently? Are they caused by Global Warming? Or do they contribute to it?
Recently a team of French scientists claimed that the El Nino phenomenon (actually, a whole set of phenomena) is related to underwater volcanic activity. Much research is taking place all over the globe in an effort to find out what causes it and how it may be predicted.
Perhaps we need a world-wide concerted effort — similar to the International Geophysical Year of 1957-58 — to study El Nino, its causes, and its effects. But the problem is: How can you plan such a program if you can’t predict when the phenomenon will occur? Stay tuned. We haven’t seen the last of El Nino!
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