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Page 17 · column 4 of 6 · from the scan, no model involved
the Blackwater River near Franklin was flowing upstream.
Streamflows for July averaged 45 percent, up slightly from June but well below the 71 percent recorded in July 1985.
Groundwater levels in three index wells were reported to be following seasonal declines and continue to be below normal. The index well in Fairfax County reported a level below normal for the fourteenth straight month, “and is at its lowest level since February 1982.”
Rainfall reports from across the state reflected extreme variations, which are normal during the summer thunderstorm season. Richmond recorded 6.85 inches during July (normal is 5.14) while Lynchburg reported only 0.98 inches (3.85 is normal) for the same period. The northern Virginia monitoring station at Dulles Airport reported a total rainfall for the year (through July 31) of 13.48 inches, a departure of 10.18 inches below normal.
The office of the state climatologist reported that heavy rainfall late in the month helped the overall outlook. Despite that favorable report, the large volume of evaporation from ground to air which is normal for this time of the year means that much of the rainfall will not be of long-term benefit. The marginal change in the Drought Index reflects this fact.
The National Weather Service has amended its long-range forecast since the last update. The forecast for the period from August to October now predicts “below normal rainfall for the period; this is a change from the July to September forecast which was slightly tilted above normal values.” The longterm forecast from the University of Virginia predicts “a shift to abovenormal rainfall in the late summer or early fall.” Both the Virginia and Weather Service forecasts have a confidence rating of between 55 and 62 percent.
The climatologist noted that although most of the precipitation will likely be in the form of scattered and isolated thunderstorms, during the next few weeks “the likelihood of an all-day rain from a tropical cyclone increases rapidly . . .” Historically,
95.1%